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By Marcene S. Sonneborn
Where are the jobs when manufacturing becomes nanofabrication (building with molecules) and products are created, appearing spontaneously from a pool of liquid and nanopowders? What about art, philosophy, cultural pursuits? Will these ever have value in our culture equal to the current status of engineering and industrial production? This issue, "Where will there be jobs?", was raised at an economic development forum, Agenda for Growth sponsored by NYNEX in Syracuse, New York in February. I risked the opinion (in front of an audience of 300) that in ten years we may find value in "quality of life " jobs. A gasp from a traditionalist in the audience, it was obviously heretofore unthinkable.
NYNEX assembled panels of ten in five separate locations across the state to discuss the future of New York State in economic development. Though heavy with representation from the traditional economic development community, there was a recognition of diversity with the inclusion of one hispanic, one African-American, and two women. Could we tell them anything different than economic developers have been saying for the last five years? If we came back in five years, would we be discussing the same problems as we are today?
So what will happen when manufac- turing jobs disappear? My assumption that they will do so is not shared by industrial era developers who acquired power and influence during the heyday of manufacturing. But I have seen and heard too much to not believe that it is inevitable. Down the highway from Syracuse, Cornell University has funding from the National Science Foundation to operate a Nanofabrication Center to study tools and techniques for molecular manipulation and construction. At the Spring Conference of the CASE (Computer Assisted Software Engineering) Center at Syracuse University, Dr. Janos Fendler described a method to "manufacture" a semiconductor in liquid, one molecule of gallium arsenide at a time. Ten or fifteen years was the projection, but that is within the lifetime of many of us.
At the 1994 World Future Society Conference in Boston last July, I heard one speaker say that artists have a perception about the future, and artistic work has been found to foretell what is to be, years in advance. A few futurist corporations are beginning to place artists on their strategic planning committees. Rand Corporation has used science fiction writers for this purpose for years, according to one Internet source.
Our defense industry is also seeking creative talents. Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories have teamed science fiction writers with Alvin and Heidi Toffler to design non-lethal weapons for warfare in an information age. Having never fought a digital war, we need new weapons applying existing technologies in new ways. A January issue of "Washington Technology" described the scenarios for information warfare for which the Department of Defense is preparing. Without judgment on whether this is a desirable direction for the U.S. military, this is a recognition of the value of creativity.
Our society generally does not reward or encourage the care and feeding of creativity. We glorify scientists, engineers, and computer programmers while we cut government funding for the arts. Artistically talented and creative individuals work second jobs to support their creative interests. Being an entrepreneur is in vogue, while being an inventor is considered a bit odd.
Revolutionary products in a given industry are seldom discovered by someone within that same industry. An inventor-client of mine expressed his opinion that anyone with a PhD in science is less capable of innovation in that field. He/she has been imprinted with all of the commonly accepted scientific principles through years of studying in that field. Where will we find new scientific discoveries if we do not encourage and reward creativity and the study of arts in our children and our workforce?
Technology now replaces laborers in manufacturing plants, and newspapers report that our economy is doomed. "We are turning into a hamburger- flipping service-based workforce, and our students in school won't have jobs when they finish their education." That is, under our current system of incentives. Do we need to rethink how we direct, train and motivate people? I think so.
Marcene S. Sonneborn can be reached at 315-425-5144.